Jeff Rubin

I hear that it isn't a good idea to read too much from authors you already agree with. Which means that I've been cheating in my reading, because I've been reading Jeff Rubin. Jeff Rubin writes, primarily, about oil and energy issues, and believes that times are getting more difficult with regards to this.

Have a read...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/where-will-china-find-the-oil-to-power-its-economy/article2010203/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/only-recessions-can-deliver-obamas-energy-targets/article1971285/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/is-nature-trying-to-tell-us-something/article1951546/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/is-the-house-of-saud-next/article1933633/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/wikileaks-reveals-imminent-saudi-oil-peak/article1908385/

The Future is not as you Know it

 To the right is a graph showing the time lines for a number of predictions for the future. This was done by the author of XKCD through the use of Google. He does not play favorites or make distinctions. Have a look and see. You may be looking at the most accurate depiction of the future yet described.

Meat on the barbecue

You are meat. I am meat. We're both meat, and the only reason we are alive is because we are cooking. Our brains are on fire with electrical activity. And if you change the current, you change who you are.

Our meaty goodness is not a topic of polite conversation. We don't like to draw attention to, or confront, the fact that or biology makes us who we are and not the other way around. There is no compelling evidence that we are anything eternal- that we are anything other than the temporary flickering of neurons, no more relevant to eternity than the life and death of a mayfly and just as brief compared to vastness of the universe.

You are not the big screaming deal you think you are. The universe will not notice when you are gone.

Revelations

I want to talk about that moment of revelation. I want to talk about the moment when you understand that you are screwed- the moment when you realize that you and your uncle have both done the same job, as a clerk of the grocery store, 20 years apart. The problem with this is that he earned fifteen dollars per hour, while you earn eight and a half. The moment I'm talking about is the one when you realize that a real house is half a million dollars and not as well made as in the previous generation- although at that price the quality doesn't really concern you.

This is that awful moment when you discover your parents may have been right- high school may actually have been the best time of your life. How disappointing is that?

The Big One is Coming

Between 2004 and 2005 nearly half a million people died in earthquakes, and many more had their lives ruined. The Pacific Northwest is located in a high earthquake region known as the ring of fire that runs along the coastal regions of the Pacific Ocean like a horseshoe. Vancouver and Vancouver Island are located between two large crustal plates and one small one: The Pacific and North American plates and the Juan De Fuca plate. The Pacific plate is pushing the Juan De Fuca against and under the North America plate in a process called subduction. So this region is known as the Cascadia subduction zone.

Subduction occurs in jolts. The plate sticks against the plate above it, producing huge amounts of pressure- until it eventually slips and causes a thrust type earthquake which can be of magnitute 8 or 9+. This is different than the plate movements in California, where the plates are rubbing against each other laterally. The Cascadia Subduction process is what has formed the mountains of the Pacific Northwest region. The last 9+ earthquake in this region was in January of 1700, In other words, we have one coming.

The earthquake will move the sea floor from Vancouver Island to Northern California, pushing roughly to 10m upward at the fault itself- sending a tsunami towards the west coast and Vancouver Island. Roads, piping, sewers will all be broken open by the shaking. Fires will start and the ground will sink in low lying areas with soft ground as the soil becomes saturated with water. The tsunami will hit with several waves, growing stronger with the later waves. Everything from buildings to bodies will be sucked out to sea with each wave that hits. Debris will block transportation on highways and railways. Medical facilities and police will be overworked and overloaded. Emergency supplies will have a hard time arriving due to road and rail closures, and damage to sea ports.

And this is what you will need to prepare for in the event of a Coastal Earthquake.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

Can you feel the wave?

An earthquake is caused when energy trapped in the crust is greater than the strength of the weak spots in the crust, called faults, is releases along those faults and travels outwards in seismic waves. Waves are divided into body waves and surface waves. The body waves come first, followed by the surface waves. The body waves consist of the primary compression wave (P-Wave) which pushes and pulls rock and sediment, and the shear wave (S-Wave) which moves like a snake pushing the land up and down. Surface waves consist of Love waves which also move like a snake but sideways as opposed to the vertical movement of the S-Wave, and the Rayleigh Wave which moves the earth vertically like the S-Wave, but in a slower manner more like rolling ocean waves.

Generally you will feel shaking from the body waves first, followed by the shifting of the love wave and then the roll of the Rayleigh wave.

During the Great Sumatran Earthquake of 2004, the coastline of Sumatra actually subsided and some of the coast was submerged by the ocean. This 9.3 earthquake was caused by the same stresses currently at work in the Cascadia Subduction zone.

The 1964 Alaska earthquake,a 9.2 magnitude, cause extensive landslides and generated the expected tsunami. This earthquake is similar to what is expected along the Cascadia subduction zone, in that it is a mega thrust earthquake whose uplift effect on the crust generated liquefaction, landslides and a tsunami.

Can you feel the wave?

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

Why Two Meters Make a Difference

When we look at the image to the right, we can see that the Vancouver area is a low tsunami risk. Tsunami run up is expected to be around 2m or less. Victoria has an intermediate run up risk, with the potential for 1-5m of tsunami run up.

So there isn't much to worry about on this front.

Is there?

Maybe not for buildings from the tsunami itself, those would be more at risk from the earthquake that causes the tsunami. But for people there could still be a significant risk, depending upon where you are when the tsunami hits. Have a look at this image below and tell me how safe 2m of surging ocean waves feel now.

Still feel safe?

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR