Olduvai Theory Shows its Age

"The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy production) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania." - From Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia

2030 is getting closer, and the question of whether Olduvai theory will go the way of Mathusian Theory as another discredited doomsday theory is becoming increasingly important.

I would argue however, that these doomsday scenarios should not be so easily discounted. I would argue that both Malthusian Theory and Olduvai theory are sound in the premise. As critics have noted, they did not account to technological improvements, but the technological improvements have not changed the basic premises and problems of these theories. Technological marvels have succeeded only in buying us a little more time to dig our graves a little bit deeper.

Malthus wasn't wrong that food production and population growth are at odds with each other, biologists see this tension in ecosystems everywhere. That Malthus did not foresee how fossil fuels could temporarily super-charge agriculture does not render his concerns unimportant.

That Olduvai Theory seems to have set the death knell of industrial civilization a little to early does not mean that finite resources will not run out. So pretend that a miscalculation invalidates the premise is juvenile and indicates a fear of the premise being attacked.

Why do we dismiss these theories so easily? Is it because we believe that they are wrong? Or is it because we are terrified that they are right?