Talk Tuesday: NASA thinks we're Doomed, and I'm wondering what took them

So I found this. And I wanted to speak about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

So NASA has funded a study that has concluded that civilization is headed for collapse. Their logic mirrors much of what was argued by Jared Diamond in his book Collapse. And much of this is, again, old news to readers of the late Social Critic and Author Daniel Quinn. And even before that, much of this was spotted and articulated in 'The Population Bomb' by Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich predicted mass starvation well before the beginning of he twenty first century. And as you can imagine, this cause people to discount his arguments, much as Thomas Malthus was ignored before him.

But.

But here's the thing, the logic is still correct. We can't predict new resource discoveries (I'm thinking of the discovery of oil in the North Sea as an easy example). And it's really hard to anticipate the technologies of the future of their impacts (I'm thinking here of chemical fertilizers and pesticides). But basic laws of physics and biology don't change.

Depletion of non-renewable resources is a one way street. That's what non-renewable means. If we our food production and population levels causes damage to the ecosystem in which we reside (it is), then that damage will reduce the carrying capacity of the area. If we reduce the carrying capacity of the area, but bring more people into the area (we are, that's literally what urbanization is); then we can only maintain that population by importing resources from outside the area. If we import resources from outside urban areas to maintain an urban population (we are), then we will reduce the carrying capacity of those regions and damage those ecosystems as well. If a civilization depends upon this system of urbanization and expanding resource depletion (we are), then that civilization will need to continue expanding to survive- whether by trade or by expansion or by conquest. If a civilization is continuously expanding (we are), and if that civilization exists in a finite environment (like say one little planet); then eventually there will be no place or method to expand. If a civilization that survives through continued expansion reaches a point where it can no longer expand....

boom.

It happened to the Romans. It happened to the Mayans. It happened on Easter Island. It happened again and again throughout history on a smaller scale as local empires and nations competed against each other for dominance. But eventually the collapse will not be local.

New technologies may push back the date of said collapse again, as it has done in the past.

New Discoveries may buy us more time.

But there is only so much planet.

And we are running out.

Of planet.

Think about this for a moment. We once thought of the planet and the oceans as functionally limitless. But they aren't. And every now and then throughout history we noticed, and then disregarded what we noticed. Dodo goes extinct? Passenger Pigeons go extinct? Not a big deal. Oil crisis as the world hit peak crude oil discovery? Brief panic and then back to happy motoring. DDT causing mass decline in bird populations? Some nations pass local laws and then move on. Hole in the ozone layer? Minor course correction and then forgotten. Northwest Passage is ice free for the first time in recorded history? Start fighting over control of shipping lanes and oil drilling rights.

So yeah, the clock is still ticking. We can buy more time on the clock. But it's still ticking.

So yeah, Civilization is doomed. Better enjoy it while you can.

And maybe use your time well.

If you're lucky, you'll be like Thomas Malthus and not live to see things fall.

But.

But, maybe you won't be lucky.

Life is Short.
Work is Crap.
Join my Cult.

The Repo Man and You

I've been browsing TV Tropes. I do this a lot. And in browsing through a couple of tropes. I noted something disturbing.


The Sympathetic Sentient Weapon, is a term that could be used to describe a surprising amount of modern jobs. Think about the Meter Maid and the Repo Man. These are regular people just doing jobs so that they can pay for their own right to live in this mad world. But to do so, they must inflict pain upon others.

Now, if you are still buying into the theology of modern civilization, you might think that those people brought these things upon themselves. But the game of civilization is designed to be lost. The game of civilization doesn't function unless it offers up a certain amount of its population as a sacrifice to power the success of those at the top.

And that psychology buy in that you may still cling to matches another trope.
  The restraining bolt. Unlike the sexy and tragic plot devices of science fiction, however, our restraining bolts are psychological and financial dependence upon a system that is damaging in a very real and tangible way.

We've been writing about ourselves in code to ourselves because we couldn't bear to say it out loud. Our masters wouldn't like it. But here we are, a bunch of slaves punishing each other because we don't know how to get out. The big discovery of the modern world has been to hide the mechanisms of this system better than previous generations.

"The greatest trick the devil every pulled, was convincing the world that he didn't exist."

The Usual Suspects

Yeah progress.

Life is Short.
Work is Crap.
Join my Cult.

Friday and why Sid Meier ruined my Childhood

So it's Friday. And the populist politics of dying empires continues unabated. Leaders say stupid things to appeal to stupid supporters. The progress made during the prosperous years is squandered.

And the clock ticks down.

But that's pretty dire. And this is Friday. So I thought I'd ignore the problem a little and take the time to recommend some video games that deconstruct our smug first world civilized delusions. Or more accurately the first game to mess with my head (probably not, but let's go with that).

Civilization 2

Civilization 2 was the first game to truly mess with my head in an immediate way. I noticed what they did while playing. Other games I may have played earlier (told you), the effect of Chrono Trigger or Final Fantasy 3 (as it was called on the SNES), were things that burrowed in my brain and only become clear after reflection years later. Civilization 2 taught me something uncomfortable about civilization and population growth. It taught a lesson about food supply and the limits of growth that was jarring. Also, unlike every other on this list, Civilization 2 taught through game mechanics and not through story.

Cities in the game will only grow in size if they produce excess food. Once the city has filled its food stores, the population will increase by one unit and deplete the food stores. Cities can only directly generate resources, including food, within a set radius around the city. Once a city is drawing resources from all available space within the radius a city must begin importing resources to continue growing. This necessitates new cities in less developed regions, but limits the growth of those cities by sending their resources away. There is an upper limit on this model, and the endgame occurs in 2020 just as most players will reach that limit. In trying to maximize my results I learned this system well enough that i knew our space program and the Good ending it provided were my only way to avoid stagnation or a war of genocide against my digital neighbours.

And then something occurred to me. Mines and oil well don't deplete in Civilization 2. But of course they do in the real world. You can't exhaust the land you farm in Civilization 2. But of course you can in the real world, the dust bowl and desertification worldwide make that clear. My vast digital empire was a carefully tuned system. If I were able to exhaust resources in game, my empire would face disastrous consequences.

And my brain suddenly had a thought.

2 + 2 = oh crap...

And there you go. Moving on.

Video Games and Answering the Question of Civilization

I want to torture a metaphor here, so bear with me.

I love "The Matrix Revolutions ", and I do occasionally find myself defending it to others, especially the ending. I find myself doing the same with some of my favorite video games, particularly "Far Cry 3 ". I do on occasion, as a result, find myself telling people that they've missed the point of the story or the ending- going all sanctimonious hipster in my justifications.

And then we get to "The Last of Us ", which I hate. It's been repeatedly referred to with breathless praise as, "the 'Citizen Cane ' of video games ". I've listened to commentators talk about the genius behind the characterization and the ending and the arcs of the narrative. And I have had people tell me breathlessly that I don't understand it.

But I do understand it.

I'm just not impressed by it.

And now, if I'm being honest with myself, I have to wonder if people also did understand my favorite films and video games and such.

And if they also did not care.

I am forced to consider the idea that smart people may consider the same facts as I have, and that they might then come to a different conclusion.

Some questions have provable right or wrong answers. Others have only answers that provide working results and answers that don't provide working results.

Now it's time to get contentious. "The Last of Us " may be given a pass on this basis but civilization does not. After ten thousand years, it has not provided working results. So what is to be done?

Life is short.
Work is crap.
Join my cult.

The Lie We Believe (Food Poisoning for Thought Reprint)

(*Reprinted from Food Poisoning for Thought as part my ongoing process to unify my web presence.*)

We have not tumbled the secret to civilization without servitude. Our only answer is to allow the slaves to choose their masters and to present the possibility- however unlikely, that a slave might one day become king. Or at least become rich.

This is the lie we believe. This is the enchantment cast upon us. This is the story we have been told so long and so often from so many different sources that we mistake the telling of it for our own thoughts.

The Problem with Living for the Weekend (Food Poisoning for Thought Reprint)

(*Reprinted from Food Poisoning for Thought as part my ongoing process to unify my web presence.*)

Do you like your job? I hope so. But statistically you are unlikely to like your job.

If you are lucky, like me, you do not hate your job and it provides you with a good wage good hours and good benefits.

But so what?

My job is essential to the functioning of modern civilization. Like many boring but essential jobs, my job keeps the wheels of civilization turning. And I know co workers for whom this is their justification for going to work everyday.

But so what?

Let's ask horrible question shall we. What is the value of retaining civilization?

The great advantage of civilization, is it enables massive population growth, and specialization of labor.

The cost of civilization is that it requires massive outlays of resources. but because it is not sustainable it must grow more with each new generation and it did the last.

As a result of the population, and labor specialization. civilizations tend to produce massive technological and social innovation.

But so what?

because of what they require massive consumption of resources and ever increasing growth numbers, the price is
... everything.

And on top of that, if destruction of ecosystem isn't a large enough for you, there is of course the cost to each and everyone of us for our participation in civilization.

Industrial scale total war, hierarchically enforced poverty... and that is before we start examining your work week. The overcrowding of urban centers squeeze more people into one place than a human mind is wired to process. The pace of work and the stress of intangible enemies we can't see or strike with a spear drives 70% of us quietly insane at some point.

We work longer hours with less rest for worse results than our hunter gatherer ancestors and mental illness is our reward from our pointy haired bosses.

But so what?

Isn't that just how the world is? Were making ourselves sick, and in the process we're killing life on earth. But that's just how things are. Right?

7 billion of us toiling at job we mostly don't like so we can medicate with media and chemicals on the weekend?

So what's the alternative? The deck is stacked against us and if we step out of line we risk our livelihoods and security.

But so what?