The Future is not as you Know it

 To the right is a graph showing the time lines for a number of predictions for the future. This was done by the author of XKCD through the use of Google. He does not play favorites or make distinctions. Have a look and see. You may be looking at the most accurate depiction of the future yet described.

Meat on the barbecue

You are meat. I am meat. We're both meat, and the only reason we are alive is because we are cooking. Our brains are on fire with electrical activity. And if you change the current, you change who you are.

Our meaty goodness is not a topic of polite conversation. We don't like to draw attention to, or confront, the fact that or biology makes us who we are and not the other way around. There is no compelling evidence that we are anything eternal- that we are anything other than the temporary flickering of neurons, no more relevant to eternity than the life and death of a mayfly and just as brief compared to vastness of the universe.

You are not the big screaming deal you think you are. The universe will not notice when you are gone.

Revelations

I want to talk about that moment of revelation. I want to talk about the moment when you understand that you are screwed- the moment when you realize that you and your uncle have both done the same job, as a clerk of the grocery store, 20 years apart. The problem with this is that he earned fifteen dollars per hour, while you earn eight and a half. The moment I'm talking about is the one when you realize that a real house is half a million dollars and not as well made as in the previous generation- although at that price the quality doesn't really concern you.

This is that awful moment when you discover your parents may have been right- high school may actually have been the best time of your life. How disappointing is that?

The Big One is Coming

Between 2004 and 2005 nearly half a million people died in earthquakes, and many more had their lives ruined. The Pacific Northwest is located in a high earthquake region known as the ring of fire that runs along the coastal regions of the Pacific Ocean like a horseshoe. Vancouver and Vancouver Island are located between two large crustal plates and one small one: The Pacific and North American plates and the Juan De Fuca plate. The Pacific plate is pushing the Juan De Fuca against and under the North America plate in a process called subduction. So this region is known as the Cascadia subduction zone.

Subduction occurs in jolts. The plate sticks against the plate above it, producing huge amounts of pressure- until it eventually slips and causes a thrust type earthquake which can be of magnitute 8 or 9+. This is different than the plate movements in California, where the plates are rubbing against each other laterally. The Cascadia Subduction process is what has formed the mountains of the Pacific Northwest region. The last 9+ earthquake in this region was in January of 1700, In other words, we have one coming.

The earthquake will move the sea floor from Vancouver Island to Northern California, pushing roughly to 10m upward at the fault itself- sending a tsunami towards the west coast and Vancouver Island. Roads, piping, sewers will all be broken open by the shaking. Fires will start and the ground will sink in low lying areas with soft ground as the soil becomes saturated with water. The tsunami will hit with several waves, growing stronger with the later waves. Everything from buildings to bodies will be sucked out to sea with each wave that hits. Debris will block transportation on highways and railways. Medical facilities and police will be overworked and overloaded. Emergency supplies will have a hard time arriving due to road and rail closures, and damage to sea ports.

And this is what you will need to prepare for in the event of a Coastal Earthquake.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

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MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

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Can you feel the wave?

An earthquake is caused when energy trapped in the crust is greater than the strength of the weak spots in the crust, called faults, is releases along those faults and travels outwards in seismic waves. Waves are divided into body waves and surface waves. The body waves come first, followed by the surface waves. The body waves consist of the primary compression wave (P-Wave) which pushes and pulls rock and sediment, and the shear wave (S-Wave) which moves like a snake pushing the land up and down. Surface waves consist of Love waves which also move like a snake but sideways as opposed to the vertical movement of the S-Wave, and the Rayleigh Wave which moves the earth vertically like the S-Wave, but in a slower manner more like rolling ocean waves.

Generally you will feel shaking from the body waves first, followed by the shifting of the love wave and then the roll of the Rayleigh wave.

During the Great Sumatran Earthquake of 2004, the coastline of Sumatra actually subsided and some of the coast was submerged by the ocean. This 9.3 earthquake was caused by the same stresses currently at work in the Cascadia Subduction zone.

The 1964 Alaska earthquake,a 9.2 magnitude, cause extensive landslides and generated the expected tsunami. This earthquake is similar to what is expected along the Cascadia subduction zone, in that it is a mega thrust earthquake whose uplift effect on the crust generated liquefaction, landslides and a tsunami.

Can you feel the wave?

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

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MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

Why Two Meters Make a Difference

When we look at the image to the right, we can see that the Vancouver area is a low tsunami risk. Tsunami run up is expected to be around 2m or less. Victoria has an intermediate run up risk, with the potential for 1-5m of tsunami run up.

So there isn't much to worry about on this front.

Is there?

Maybe not for buildings from the tsunami itself, those would be more at risk from the earthquake that causes the tsunami. But for people there could still be a significant risk, depending upon where you are when the tsunami hits. Have a look at this image below and tell me how safe 2m of surging ocean waves feel now.

Still feel safe?

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

The Effects of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake/Tsunami

The 2004 Sumatra earthquake set of a massive tsunami that can be seen to the right in this wonderful computer simulation available on wikimedia commons. The important thing that I want to stress here is how far the tsunami reaches.

The Cascadia subduction zone on the Pacific Northwest is very close to Victoria, Vancouver, Seattle, and in fact most of the Northwest coast all the way down to North California. All of this can expect to be effected not just by the eventual earthquake itself, but by the resulting tsunami, liquefaction, rockslides, and incidental fires and power outages.

Are you ready?

For this?

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

Zombies and Saddles don't mix!

Zombie Outbreaks, or any other disaster spread by human factors, tends to pick up speed with each transmission. As more people are infect (literally or metaphorically) more people are able to transmit, and if there are no natural limiting factors (such as geographic barriers) the outbreak will begin to pick up speed at an alarming rate once it passes a critical junction we refer to as the saddle.

In the event of a Zombie Outbreak or any other human driven disaster, the key is to escape prior to the saddle so that you are not overwhelmed by the outbreak as it explodes following the saddle.

Have a look at this graph of human population growth through the centuries. The underlying formula governing that growth has been affected by our access to fossil fuels, but not as much as you might think. The point where the population starts to spike upward is the saddle.

Look that this progression of numbers: 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024. 16 through 128 are the saddle, and all I did there was multiply 2 by 2 and then multiply each resulting sum by 2 as well. I didn't change the underlying math, but eventually the formula hit a saddle and began producing dramatically bigger numbers.

All other things being equal, this is what a Zombie Outbreak style disaster looks like in terms of spread. And you want to get out before the saddle makes the effects of the disaster so pervasive that there is nowhere to hide.

So you want to watch for the signs of a Zombie Outbreak early so that you can escape before the entire human environment is effected. Remember Zombie Outbreaks are disasters spread by human factors, and include things like popular revolutions, pandemics and epidemics, mass panic or paranoia, and anything else that humans can spread through direct social contact that could massively disrupt the social cohesion of a society.

The uprisings in the Middle East right now are Zombie Outbreaks. So is the Haitian cholera outbreak. Limiting factors (such as proper hygiene for epidemics) can suppress the spread of an outbreak, while enhancing factors (such as social media for popular revolutions) can fans the flames. Watch the trends and look at the factors involves. You don't want to be caught in the middle of a zombie outbreak when it passes the saddle.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

Images used

• From the Intuitive Blogger
• From Eric Ingrum
• From Sean Hicklin

Fourteen out of Sevety-Five

14 of the 75 richest human beings in recorded history were all born in the United States
in the 1830s. Paul Allen, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and half a dozen of the biggest names
in the computer industry were all born between 1953 and 1955. These occurrences are
not something to overlook. Being born in the 1830s meant that these future millionaires
were coming of age in an era where the United States was an open book waiting to be
written in, and old paradigms were dying like flies in the fall. Being born in the early
1950s meant that Gates, Jobs and the rest were hitting their learning years just as the first
personal computers were becoming available.

An old proverb suggests that luck is when opportunity meets preparation. Those people
just mentioned had the good fortune of being born at key moments in human history.
Periods of change when paradigms were shifting and new ideas were starting to reshape
our culture.

We currently live in just such a time, and the people coming of age now are the people
who will either seize that opportunity or be buried under it.

Liquefaction- Are you at risk?

Liquefaction, in geology, occurs when the ground becomes so saturated with water that it begins to act like quicksand, and things placed upon the water saturate soil begin to sink into the ground as though pulled under. Liquefaction damages roads, sucks cars and trucks beneath the surface and even swallows up whole buildings. There are areas of the lower mainland that are particularly at risk of liquefaction in the event of flooding, heavy rain or tsunami.

Do you live in a high risk area for liquefaction?

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS AND OTHER DISASTER TYPES

COME TO "ESCAPING GROUND ZERO" OUR WORKSHOP ON HOW TO GET

YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES TO SAFETY IN A MASS EMERGENCY

MAY 21ST AT THE PETER KAYE ROOM IN THE VANCOUVER PUBLIC LIBRARY

1PM AT THE DOWNTOWN BRANCH

$20 PLUS TAX AT THE DOOR

Wombats

Digger, a webcomic by Ursula Vernon. You should read this. Period. Now. 'Nuff said.

Rupert And Hubert

Rupert And Hubert

Admittedly, with the Canadian federal election just around the corner, this comic seems to have the right advice.

The Sleepwalkers

The Sleepwalkers

This particular comic, from the Webcomic: Dresden Codak by Aaron Diaz, is a personal favorite of mine. There are so many good ideas crammed into this single narrative. The whole thing can get a little dense and jumbled, but rereading is rewarded, and of course the art is beautiful.

The Common Enemy

The need to create a common enemy is essential to any group or organization. Human beings instinctively organize their definitions of people into groups known as Us and Them. failure by leaders to create these groups clearly and persuasively, will result in people creating their own groups of US and Them- which may or may not damage the group as a whole. This is how cliques form, this is where gossip comes from. A group needs to create unity, by aiming negative attention at another group.

This sounds negative, and I can hear people howling that humans 'should' not encourage this. We are this way. Period. Full stop. To pretend that we are not this way is to encourage exactly the kind of malicious petty cliquing and factioning that such howlers would bemoan later. How we are is not in question. Whether we accept how we are does not affect how we are in the slightest. If we are to create positive results, we must accept the conditions on the ground as they are and work with them.

There is was interesting experiment in honesty that was set up by Dan Ariely. A classroom full of college students are asked to do a test for financial remuneration (they will receive money for every question answered correctly). The answer key to the test is on the student's desk and the students are supposed to mark their own tests once they finish. Obviously the set up, makes cheating incredibly easy. Now a variable is introduced. A student (who is part of the experiment) stands up less than a minute after the test starts and announces that he is done, and then asks what he should do. He is told to go hand in his test and receive his remuneration.

Now the interesting question, is how this affects the honesty of the rest of the students- who cannot help but know that this students has blatantly cheated. The interesting answer, is that the students' reactions depend upon what the cheater is wearing. If the cheater is wearing their school sweater, the students will cheat in significantly greater numbers. If the cheater is wearing a rival school's sweater, the students WILL NOT CHEAT AT ALL!

By wearing the sweater of a rival school, the cheater provoked a strong response. The students said collectively, maybe THEY cheat like that, but WE DON'T! Conversely, when the cheater wore their sweater, he gave them tacit permission to cheat as well- he was a leader and a trendsetter. The students didn't make this decision consciously, they likely weren't even aware that they were cheating more or less. But they were.

We cannot help this. We evolved as a social, troupe based- then tribal based, creature. Like wolves, we are intensely social animals. Our need to belong is nearly all consuming. We lack natural weapons like the great cats, and so if we fail to belong- we risk death alone in the wilderness.

If we fail to accept this and account for this, we will not create the results that we want to create.

Beat a Man into Enthusiasm

You can beat a man into submission, but not into excitement. In order to create a strong group dynamic, you must appeal strongly to people's hopes and dreams. You must inspire them and make them believe, but you must provide them with successes and ones that are easily achieved- in order to build a foundation underneath those dreams.

Set these things up so that the little things add up. Do the lion's share of the work in the beginning, but get your team their successes. In the beginning, the little things are huge.

It is also important to let them repeat those little successes several times, and just as important to make them teach their method of achieving that little success. It is by these baby steps that heroes are created.

Interesting Times (Language Warning)

 

Rebecca Black

I have watched Rebecca Black's infamous video 'Friday'. And I believe it exemplifies everything that is wrong with our culture. The desire to be famous and popular, the obsession with quick results without needing to build your skills and put in the work. While I admire Ms. Black's audacity and willingness to put herself out there, but a foundation of hard work and skill is lacking.

And this is, of course, the problem.

We want to build skyscrapers without laying foundations.

So sick and tired of this.

I really don't understand this 'game' called modern life. It's rigged against us, has to many rules that aren't stated on the box, and the tutorial we forcibly receive from ages six through eighteen seems specifically designed to destroy the skills and instincts we need to succeed.

We have a set of game rules that include the need for accounting, and calculations around interest rates and tax forms, and personal document organization, and a host of other paperwork skills. But we are taught algebra, and geometry and calculus. We have a set of game rules that reward audacity, the willingness to fail, and the ability to fail without damaging ones assets. But we are taught trepidation, fear of failure and allowed to believe that a generous master is better than your own backup plan. We have a set of game rules that reward self teaching, and curiosity. But we attack curiosity, because it is hard to manage; and make learning so arduous during schooling that people refuse to learn after graduation. We nee practical skills that we can fall back on, when things do not go according to plan: critical-thinking, self-sufficiency, and self-defense. Instead, we are taught abstract skills in a way that does not explain their use and fills up our time so that we have no practical skills when we hit the age of eighteen. 


So, I am really sick and tired of this. 


Something has to change. What are we to do?

Peak Oil and Tar Sands production

The peak of world oil discovery reached it's highest levels ever in 1965 at 55 billion barrels per year. Since that time discovery has dropped off to roughly between 15 and 20 billion barrels per year- and that's including unconventional sources such as the Alberta Tar Sands. With the former third world rapidly industrializing, and consumption in the first world increasing, there is a growing gap between the amount of oil being discovered and the demand for oil.

In other words, we want more than we are finding. And what we are finding is not as good at what we used to find.

The earliest oil production was centered around liquid crude oil, the kind that bubbles up from the ground or can be pumped from the ground. Much of the current oil development centers around what are called unconventional oil sources, such as oil locked in bituminous rocks: ie. oil shale and oil sands, such as the deposits found in Northern Alberta, Canada.

Because the oil must be separated from the shale or sands before it can be used, the extraction process for unconventional oil sources is considerably higher than conventional oil. For this reason, these sources were never developed in the past when oil prices were low. They are being developed only now, not because of recent discovery, but because the price of oil has finally risen consistently high enough to make the process profitable.

In other words, when you hear a heroin addict talking about how amazing methadone is, you can safely assume that he has run out of heroin.

--See the rest of the article here at Squidoo

...Give him power

"Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power."
—Abraham Lincoln

A Short Quote from "Troy"

 "The Thessalonian you're fighting... 

he's the biggest man I've ever seen. 

I wouldn't want to fight him...." 

Boy

 

"And that is why no one will remember your name." 

Achilles

This doesn't really need any commentary does it?

Unfinished Workshop Poster

This is a quick peek at our unfinished poster for the upcoming workshop: Escaping Ground Zero. It is currently scheduled tentatively for May 21st. So watch this space for more information.

Apex Predators

I was browsing Wikipedia, when I stumbled across the following entry within the Apex Predator article. The idea that an apex predator will reshape an ecosystem or enforce and ecosystems current state is interesting, both on its own and when applied to human reshaping of the world we live in. If apex predators shape the local ecosystem into an environment suited to their survival style, then what does our reshaping of ecosystems saw about modern humans?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apex_predator (The article that I read)

Brian's Winter

In the Brian series by Gary Paulsen, the title character continually faces the challenge of surviving in world with very little. I used to believe that Brian's famous hatchet was Brian's most important asset.

But I was wrong. His greatest asset is his critical thinking. Brian figures out flint and steel through his critical thinking. He sorts out bow making bow hunting and bow fishing the same way.

Observation and reflection are his best weapons in his battle for survival.

Are they yours?

Climate Change Skeptic Admits Evidence Seems to Support Climate Change

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Earth_Surface_Temperature

  "We are an independent, non-political, non-partisan group. We will gather the data, do the analysis, present the results and make all of it available. There will be no spin, whatever we find. We are doing this because it is the most important project in the world today. Nothing else comes close."

Richard A. Muller

The Republican funded study by Climate Change skeptic Richard Muller have released their prelimiary findings.


They admit the existing data looks right.

Why Batman was never really Adam West

I think that children read comic books like Batman and X-Men for very different reasons than adults assume. The perception amongst adults is that comics are children's books, that is 'age appropriate' material. This suggests that either most of such adults didn't read comics as children or have forgotten what they loved about those comics. Children do not read comic books because they are 'age appropriate' but because they are not age appropriate, in fact comic books are some of the only non age appropriate material children can get a hold of at that time.

Age appropriate is another way saying cowardly. Parents are afraid to allow their children to step beyond the confines of the parent's comfort level. Children grow be stepping beyond their comfort level and rising to the challenges that exist outside that safe zone, and returning to that safe comfort zone when comfort is required. By doing this on a regular basis, the comfort zone itself is enlarged. Parents, by adding the high wall of their own comfort zone, and imposing it on the child's exploration without respect of the child's need to explore and grow, and without respect for the child's ability to sense what is needed, are crippling their child as surely as if they locked the child in a box and prevented the child from exercising.

Children need to look at the forbidden, and need to understand the forbidden. Explanations need to be reasonable, to be respected. And most children need to burn themselves to understand what hot means.

Batman appeals to children, not because of the Adam West Batman in most cases, but because of the Batman of the comic books- where the Joker kills people with laughing gas, and Poison Ivy kills with a poisoned kiss, and Ra's al Ghul can come back from the dead using his Lazarus Pit at the cost of his sanity. In the comics Joker shot and paralyzed Batgirl, and beat the second Robin to death with a crowbar. This is scary, it is extreme for young kids to read about- that's why they like it.

At the age of twelve, I saw the original movie: Jurassic Park, and I loved it. I saw the movie multiple times in theatres, in spite of the fact that the movie gave me nightmares that reoccurred for years with such consistency and regularity (I still get them occasionally) that I could recognise them as dreams when they occurred. The dreams were scary, the movie was larger than life, and absolutely convincing in its recreation of the Dinosaurs. The movie required no suspension of disbelief. My senses experienced Jurassic Park as real. And I loved it. Scared? Yes. Impressed? Oh yes.

We need to experience fear- combat it and wrestle with it- in order to learn how to deal with it. Adulthood is scary. What does the adult do, who never learned how to deal with fear as a child?

Bad Ass of the Week (Mild Language Warning on these links)

I am a regular reader of Bad Ass of the Week dot com. The site is over the top and hilarious, but also inspirational. Although the author includes a number of fictional characters, the number of real people included is awesome and enough to humble the most pompous of windbags.

By Way of Example I have included some of my favorite articles here:

• Mas Oyama: The Martial Artrist known as Godhand, who used to bullfight with his bare hands... and win!
• Leo Major: The Canadian Soldier who single handedly liberated a whole city in World War 2 and earn a commendation in The Korean War, all with only one eye! ("God gave me two of them sir, I'm still good to fight!")
• Tom Wanyandie: The 78 year old man who fought off an angry mother bear.

There are other great entries in the list, and I may highlight a few later, but this is a start. Here to remind of the amazing things that people are capable of when they decide that they will.

Added Late (because I couldn't find it when I first posted this):

•  Daniel M'Mburugu: The 73 year old man who ripped out the TONGUE of the leopard that was trying to turn Daniel into lunchmeat.

Godzilla Attacks and Zombie Outbreaks

Most disasters fall into one of a few types, based on the appropriate responses to them.

A Disaster is either a Godzilla attack or a Zombie Outbreak. A Godzilla attack is sudden, massive right from the start and directed more by terrain than by human factors. You may need to hide from initial damage, but if possible you should evacuate as soon as possible. Tsunamis, flash floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, industrial accidents, nuclear attacks, and the like are all Godzilla attacks. Keep in mind that the initial damage can sometimes last a while- as in the case of a nuclear attack and the subsequent fallout.

A Zombie Outbreak is spread by human factors and tends to build strength the longer the disaster continues. Plagues, pandemics, famines and civil unrest are all Zombie Outbreaks. In the event of a Zombie Outbreak, you need hide and protect yourself from the spread and effects of the Zombie outbreak and remove yourself from the effected area before the effects become overwhelming.

Methusalah

This little graphic is from Conway's Game of Life. This is called a die hard Methuselah. The most interesting thing about this little pattern is, that using the simple rules of Conway's game of life, this simple initial pattern self organizes into a series of impressive and much more complex patterns over an impressively long (for Conway's Game of Life) time before finally going extinct. This little pattern seems to me, to be the evolution of life on Earth, with the future final act added on ahead of time. Something to ponder in any event: how even in this little world, simple rules and patterns can generate vast complexity, but even these eventually die out.

Our structures

In the infamous chicago experiment more than half the participants were willing to electrocute total strangers to death because a man in a lab coat told them to do so.

At the Delancey street foundation hardened criminal become model citizens, with a 98 percentage success rate, because they are surrounded by multiple levels of positive support.

We are slaves to the structure around us.